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Auburn victory would be a shocker

By Lew Gilliland
The Times-Journal

Published November 26, 2009

One of two things is going to happen today at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Either Alabama is going to put the wraps on its second straight undefeated regular season and head off to next week’s SEC championship game in Atlanta needing only a victory over Florida to clinch a spot in the national title game, or Auburn is going to hand first-year coach Gene Chizik a landmark victory while also possibly ruining its archrival’s season.

A Tiger victory today would be, frankly, shocking.

After all, the last time we saw Auburn, it was busy blowing a 14-0 lead en route to a 31-24 loss to a Georgia team suffering through its worst season in years.

Things are so bad for Georgia even its dog died. But, when Bulldog fans look back at the disaster that is their 2009 campaign, they’ll at least be able to take some solace in the comeback against Auburn.

Nevertheless, there is reason to believe the Tigers could shock the football world today.

For starters, Chizik has proven to be a better coach than many gave him credit for when Auburn tapped him to replace Tommy Tuberville.

The Tigers own nice wins over West Virginia, Tennessee and Ole Miss and have already bettered last year’s victory total by two. The victory over Ole Miss looks more impressive by the day, considering what the Rebels did against Tennessee and LSU the last two weeks.

Plus, Auburn has also had a better year offensively than its cross-state rival, at least statistically.

Out of the 120 teams in NCAA Football Bowl Subdivison, Auburn ranks 11th in rushing offense (219.6 yards per game), 54th in passing offense (221.9) and 16th in total offense (441.5).

Alabama, by contrast, ranks 10th in rushing (225.6), 89th in passing (192.4) and 30th overall (418).

The problem for Auburn is that Alabama dominates on the other side of the ball.

Alabama ranks second in rushing defense (70.6 yards per game), fifth in pass defense (154.6) and first in total defense (225.2). Bottom line: opposing offenses usually accomplish little against the Tide.

The same can’t be said of the Tigers. Auburn ranks 88th against the run (169.7), 24th against the pass (189.5) and 56th overall (359.2).

And, defense is the reason there will be no upset today. Auburn will keep it close for a half, maybe even three quarters, but the Alabama defense and running game will ultimately prevail.

The pick: Alabama 27, Auburn 10.

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